- Green Bay is coming off a tough overtime game and they are traveling on a short week. Flynn is an upgrade at QB over Scott Tolzien but he is still no Aaron Rogers. His previous start a couple years ago with the Packers was against Detroit, and that got him a big pay day. So he knows how to run this Packer offense. Detroit has been terrible on Thanksgiving day games. They are 1-8 ATS. Detroit is coming off 2 straight bad losses. They will be coming out to prove something in this game on national television.
Edit 12:04: Going against the public is never a bad move. The more I look at this game the more I like the Packers. They have the ability to win this game. Eddy Lacy should have a huge game and I see Flynn out to prove something. Taking the points here.
Oakland +8.5 @ Dallas (Bet it if you like it)
- Dallas had a huge road win in New York last week. They are coming home for their Thanksgiving day match up with the Raiders. In the last 11 season the Cowboys are 8-3 ATS on Thanksgiving day. I just think to spread is too big for them to cover. The Raiders have been playing decent football keeping the games close. As long as they don't turn the ball over multiple times today they should keep this one close.
Baltimore -3 vs. Pittsburgh (Bet it)
- I think this is the game of the day to bet. Here is the big reason: No NFL team has played a consecutive road game on a short week. It seems like the NFL has avoided putting teams in this situation for obvious reason. The Steelers won the first of their consecutive road games. I don't see them pulling this game out and I'm glad the spread is only 3 as it could come down to that. I think this is a safe play and I am putting it under my bet the bank section.
Indianapolis -4 vs. Tennessee (Not touching this one)
- This is a tough spot for the Titans. This is their second game of a three game road trip. They played a great game two weeks ago against the Colts and still couldn't pull it off. The Colts are not as good as people think and the Titans are probably a little bit better than people think. This current slide by the Colts is helping my claim that Andrew Luck is the luckiest and most overrated QB in the league. However with the Titans coming off a road victory on their second straight road game I see the Colts rebounding and covering this spread at home. This is the situation where Luck has to step up and stop the Colts current slide. However I would not touch this game since it comes under the weird situation of 2nd game versus each other in the last three weeks.
Kansas City +5.5 vs. Denver (Bet it)
- This is the other divisional rivalry where the teams play each other for the second time in three weeks. This situation should give the Cheifs a little bit of an advantage as they will be able to adjust their blitz packages to force more pressure this time around. They will be without one of their dominant outside pass rushers but they still have a talented enough front to get in Manning's face. The Broncos will probably pull this one out but it will be a close battle.
Jacksonville +7 @ Cleveland (Staying away)
- The Jags have discovered a decent run game in the past few weeks and the Browns have given up some big games in that department recently. Cleveland is clearly not 7 points better than any team in the NFL especially with Brandon Weeden at the helm. It's always tough to bet on one of the worst teams in the NFL but this is as comfortable as it gets.
Tampa Bay +8.5 @ Carolina (Bet it if you like it)
- The Panthers are off a late game win versus Miami and they also have a huge look ahead situation here as they play the Saints next week. The Panthers also destroyed divisional rival Tampa earlier this season 31-13.With those three situations going against the Panthers here and the Bucs playing surprisingly well of late I say go with the points here.
Minnesota +1 vs. Chicago (Bet it)
- The public is all over the Bears here. I don't get why but they are. AP even when hurt is still an elite running back and the Bears defense can't tackle anybody right now. The Bears just aren't a good team and this is one where the public is going to lose some money.
Philadelphia -3 vs. Arizona (Not touching it)
- I am not too sure about this game. Foles is due for a bad game and the Cardinals defense could be the team to force that bad game. However the Cards do play the Rams next week which is potentially a look ahead situation. I'm going with Philly here if the spread stays at 3 or less.
Jets +1.5 vs. Miami (Bet it)
- I'm going with the Jets here for one big reason: They are home. This is a different team on their home field. They have only lost 1 game and have wins against the Patriots and Saints. The Dolphins played the Panthers tough last week however the Panthers were on a short week off a huge win. The Jets could control this game from the start. Confident in this one.
Houston +7.5 vs. New England (Bet it)
- The biggest reason I like this game is because it is so far the heaviest be 1 PM game and 90% of that money is on the Patriots. The refs could be throwing flags in the home teams favor in this one. The Texans will be battling in this one. They will view this game as their super bowl. Look for them to stay touch against the Pats. Take the points.
Bills -3.5 vs. Atlanta (Staying away)
- The Falcons are coming of the game they treated as their in season super bowl against the Saints. The away underdog following a Thursday night battle is 1-6 this year. The Falcons fall under that category. I'm looking for the Bills to cover this spread in Toronto. A lot of money is on Buffalo but it is one least bet games so far this week so maybe the public will pick this one right.
49ers -7.5 vs. St. Louis (Bet it if you like it)
- The biggest thing that scares me about this game is the fact the 49ers play the Seahawks next week. However, the fact that this is another divisional game should eliminate the look ahead factor. The Rams happen to fall in the same boat as they play the Cardinals next week. So the look ahead factor should be moot for this game. So I am looking for the 49ers to cover since they will be looking to streak together some good wins and the public like the Rams. Taking the 49ers here.
Washington +1 vs. Giants (Bet it)
- Public likes the Giants. Giants just lost and their season is pretty much over. The Skins need to show up at home for their coach. I like them here.
Away
Team
|
Home
Team
|
#
of Vegas Bets
|
Vegas
Money
|
Online
Money
|
My
Pick
|
Result
|
Green Bay +6.5
|
Detroit
|
54,000
|
72% Detroit
|
71% Detroit
|
Packers
|
Detroit
|
Oakland +8.5
|
Dallas
|
52,000
|
69% Dallas
|
59% Dallas
|
Raiders
|
Raiders
|
Pittsburgh +3
|
Baltimore
|
40,000
|
58% Pittsburgh
|
51% Pittsburgh
|
Ravens
|
Steelers
|
Tennessee +4
|
Indianapolis
|
49,000
|
65% Indy
|
60% Indy
|
Colts
|
|
Denver -5.5
|
Kansas City
|
53,000
|
66% Denver
|
74% Denver
|
Cheifs
|
|
Jacksonville +7
|
Cleveland
|
20,000
|
67% Jags
|
59% Jags
|
Browns | |
Tampa Bay +8.5
|
Carolina
|
43,000
|
54% Carolina
|
63% Tampa
|
Bucs
|
|
Chicago +1
|
Minnesota
|
29,000
|
68% Chicago
|
69% Chicago
|
Vikins
|
|
Arizona +3
|
Philadelphia
|
11,000
|
63% Arizona
|
67% Arizona
|
Eagles
|
|
Miami +1.5
|
New York Jets
|
17,000
|
56% Miami
|
50/50
|
Jets
|
|
Atlanta +3.5
|
Buffalo
|
20,000
|
72% Buffalo
|
72% Buffalo
|
Bills
|
|
St. Louis +8
|
San Francisco
|
46,000
|
57% St. Louis
|
65% St. Louis
|
49ers
|
|
New England -7.5
|
Houston
|
33,000
|
86% New England
|
84% New England
|
Texans
|
|
Cincinatti Pick
|
San Diego
|
22,000
|
65% San Diego
|
64% San Diego
|
Bengals
|
|
N.Y. Giants -1
|
Washington
|
24,000
|
82% NYG
|
77% NYG
|
Redskins
|
|
New Orleans +5.5
|
Seattle
|
11,000
|
61% New Orleans
|
57% New Orleans
|
Seahawks
|
