Week 12 ATS picks

1. Atlanta +9.5 vs. New Orleans
- Anyone who looks at this bet automatically thinks New Orleans blowout. I see it. But when you look a bit closer, this match up has trap written all over it. This is a divisional battle with a large spread that could and probably should be even larger. Over 90% of the money is on the Saints. The Saints have a huge game coming up next week against the Seahawks - a game that very well could determine home field advantage in the playoffs. Atlanta is clearly a terrible team, both offensively (due mostly to injuries) and defensively (straight up lack of talent); however, they are going to come out with their A-game here and keep this one close. Take the dirty birds and the points.

2. Under 53 Atlanta vs. New Orleans
- The thinking is 'how can the Falcons stop the Saints if they can't even slow the Bucs?' They shouldn't be able to, but they will in this game. If my above assumptions are correct, this game will fall under 53.

3. Detroit -10 vs. Tampa
- Tampa Bay, after starting the season with 8 straight losses, has been playing surprisingly well. Two straight wins and impressive quarterback play by rookie Mike Glennon can't go unrecognized. Plus, the huge spread makes you immediately want to take Tampa. If you still weren't sold on your Tampa pick, the Lions have a potential look-past situation as they face a divisional rival in the Packers on Thanksgiving Day. But for some reason here, my gut tells me to go completely against all of that. I'm going with the Lions. The spread just seems too big. The Lions are better at home on the turf and they're coming off a tough road loss to Pittsburgh. Detroit will return home ready to show their fans that they're a much better team than last week's showing.

4. Houston -10 vs. Jacksonville
- This spread also seems a little high to me. Typically, I would take Jacksonville all day; however, Jacksonville already got their win this year. Plus, when they lose they like to lose by double digits. Houston is on their second straight home game. They will not drop two in a row at home. Case Keenum should come out with something to prove after his 2nd half benching last week. Look for Houston to handle Jacksonville with ease this week.

5. Minnesota +5 @ Green Bay
- Minnesota is playing their second straight road game. They lost the game straight up and ATS last week. This usually means they will at least cover this week's spread. Also, the Packers have a huge game coming up on Thursday vs. the Lions. Minnesota should put up a battle and possibly steal a win on the road in this divisional match up.

6. San Diego +5 @ Kansas City
- The Chiefs have to bounce back, right? I don't think they do. Their pass rush has started to decline in the past few weeks and they are in a tough spot: they play the Broncos again next week. The Chiefs do get to head home for this one and while it will certainly be a battle, I see them pulling out a victory. San Diego is also on their second straight road game after losing last week against the Dolphins. Take the points in this one.

7. Miami +4.5 vs. Carolina 
- Carolina has to hit the road on a short week after their huge win Monday night. This spread seems too small which begs me to take the points. Roughly 80% of the public has their money on Carolina. Miami is also off a good win. Expect a close game. I think the Panthers will leave with a three-point win.

8. Cleveland -2 vs. Pittsburgh
- After 2 convincing wins from Pittsburgh, I would think they would come into this game as the favorite. Steeler WR Antonio Brown will be shut down by Joe Haden and when Brown doesn't have a big game the Steelers struggle. Don't forget, the Steelers play on Thanksgiving versus divisional rival Ravens. Could they be gearing up early for that nationally televised game? I think so. On top of it all, Cleveland will want to show up after getting blown out by the Bengals. The Browns will win this one and cover as the Steelers look past it to their big turkey day game.

9. Chicago +1 @ St. Louis
- This game has weak trends, it's an even match up, and the spread seems on point. The Bears are coming off a hard fought overtime win but they've had a full week to recover and should be ready to go. The Rams are coming off a bye week, and that's their advantage. Jeff Fisher is 6-2 ATS in this situation in his last 8 coaching seasons; however, St. Louis does have a divisional meeting with the 49ers coming up next week. Going with Chicago in this one. Pretty much a gut pick.

10. Jets +3.5 @ Baltimore
- When I looked at this game I thought, "oh definitely Baltimore." But there's so much going against them this week. They played and lost a hard fought game last week. The Jets are coming off a road loss. Teams usually play well on the road following a road loss. The biggest thing going against the Ravens is that they play the Steelers on Thursday night. Oh, and did I mention 75% of the money is on the Ravens? The spread is greater than that magic 3-point mark, and the trends point to the Jets taking this one straight up.

11. Oakland -1 vs. Tennessee
- Have no idea on this game. Oakland is favored by 1 and coming off a nice win in Houston; however, they play Thanksgiving night against the Cowboys. Could they be looking at that game? The Titans are coming off a devastating loss vs. the Colts on Thursday night which may have completely removed them from playoff contention, but they've had a long week to recover. They do play the Colts again next week which could be very distracting and ultimately make this a look-ahead situation. As a Bills fan, I know Ryan Fitzpatrick specializes in following a very good week with a very poor week. I'm going with Oakland in this one.

12. Arizona -2.5 vs. Indianapolis
- When I saw this spread I first thought, "Oh, definitely the Colts." But, that's how you lose money. I then looked at the underlying components and realized that this game means nothing to the Colts. The Colts are coming off a huge win that pretty much locked up their division. They do play the Titans again next week and really clinching things up means a lot more to them than a victory in the desert. This is also a second straight road game for the Colts. Despite the long week, winning two in a row on the road is tough for any team. I'm taking Arizona here. I almost forgot that Cardinals' HC Bruce Arians was the Colts' head coach for most of last season. Huge advantage.

13. Dallas +2.5 @ New York
- The Cowboys are coming off a bye week that was immediately preceded by an embarrassing loss to the Saints. They have had a chance to refocus. New York has back to back huge divisional match ups in their next two games, so they may not be coming out with 100% in this first one. The Cowboys do have a Thursday night game coming up but they are used to that (playing every Thanksgiving day) and it's only against the Raiders. I'm expecting a strong showing from the Cowboys and taking the points.

14. New England +2.5 vs. Denver
- Denver is coming off a big win versus the previously undefeated Chiefs. They play the Chiefs again next week which could potentially decide the AFC West. This Pats game is a trap for the Broncos - a win next week is all they're interested in. Peyton will have to play outside in the cold which is not his specialty. On top of all this, the Pats are coming off a blown call loss to the Panthers. Brady and the Pats are going to come out with a chip on their shoulders and they are in a good place to rebound from last week's game. The NFL owes it to them.

15. Washington +4.5 vs. San Francisco
- The Niners are coming off a loss last week in New Orleans. That usually means they will have a strong showing for this second straight road game. Plus, the Redskins are in a potential look-ahead situation as they play divisional rival Giants next week. The big thing that worries me is that the early money (85%) is on the Niners. If that doesn't change throughout the week, I may switch my bet to the Redskins. They probably won't worry too much about their match up with the Giants right now anyway. They have to win this game, and that game, and all remaining games to have any shot in the dark at playoffs - every game counts.
 ------ The Niners will win this game but it will be close. Vegas is not losing this one.(Updated 11/25)