What is the first thing you do when making picks for the upcoming weeks games? Check the match ups and the spreads? That is exactly where I used to start. Then I would find some simple trends and pick the better team. Pretty simple and straightforward.
All I got from that is a losing record. Remember with betting, tie goes to the bookie.
After getting sick of losing the games I thought were easy picks I decided to overhaul everything that goes into my picks. Here is what I started looking at before even checking the weeks match ups and spreads:
1. Look at last weeks games. Find who is on a short week(Monday night game), who is on a long week(Thursday night game). Find the teams coming off an overtime game.
2. Look at the following weeks games. Find the big match ups. Pay special attention to divisional match ups between top teams.
3. Who is coming off a bye week and who has a bye week in the following week.
4. Check for teams that are playing consecutive road games.
5. Check for bad teams that played good teams tough even if they didn't win. This will install some confidence in the following week.
After checking for all this I made my picks not based on who I thought should win but based on the above facts. Here they are:
1. Jacksonville SU vs. Tennessee (13.5 point dogs)
-I picked this game based on the fact the Jags were coming off a bye week and had some time to prepare for this Titan team. Of course during the bye week Mr. Blackmon received a season ending suspension. This made me nervous but I didn't flip flop. This was a look past game for the Titans. They had the divisional face off with the Colts coming in the following week. A huge game for them with playoff implications. I assumed they would write off the lowly Jags and I nailed it.
2. St. Louis +8 vs. Indianapolis
-This game comes down to the same situation as the Jags Titans game. The Colts had a big game coming up with the Titans in the following week and who would have thought Kellen Clemons could lead a team to victory? Not the Colts. The Rams had also played the Seahawks and the Titans tough in previous weeks. I can't say I saw the blowout coming but I saw that 8 was too much to spot the tough Rams.
3. Seattle -5.5 @ Atlanta
-This game came down to the fact that Atlanta is just not a good team. They got Roddy White back but who knows if he is 100%. The defense is pathetic. This team is in a tailspin and this was an easy pick. The Seahawks did not fall into any of the traps mentioned above and the Falcons did not receive any advantage from the list above. When push came to shove everything pointed to an easy Seahawk victory.
4. Baltimore +1.5 vs. Cincinatti
-Cincinatti has now lost a top 5 player at DB and DT. Having studs at those two positions can make a defense great. This was the first time playing without both these defenders and also their second straight road game. Now the Bengals were coming into this on a long week off, however this was offset being their second straight road game. The Ravens just suffered a terrible road loss to the divisional foe Browns that may have killed their playoff hopes. Coming home after two straight road losses the defending super bowl champs were going to be playing their best football, even if it is still sub par. Seeing the Ravens as the underdog at home in this divisional game led me to the pick.
5. Carolina +6 vs. San Fran
-This game was the situation I was trying to stay away from. I thought the spread should have been closer to 3 or 3.5. Carolina has one of the best defenses in football and you know they were going to show up for this game. San Fran on the other hand has a good but over-rated defense. The Panthers were trying to prove themselves as one of the best teams in the NFL and San Fran already has that tag. San Fran was coming off a bye week and I did think they were going to win this game but the 6 points were too many to turn down as you knew Carolina was going to show up with A+ effort.
6. Denver -7 vs. San Diego
-This one comes off as another one I was trying to avoid. Denver plays KC next week and that made this a potential look past situation. I overlooked this for three reasons: Peyton Manning, Denver coming off a bye, and Denver at home in that thin air. They just weren't going to let the fans down in this game versus an over-rated San Diego team.
7. Pittsburgh -3 vs. Buffalo
-The Steelers are no longer the Steelers of old but they are still the Steelers. They were not going to let a rookie QB come into their stadium and play well. Especially a rookie QB who is not good and coming off a 4 week hiatus. The Bills also had a big game coming up vs. their foes the Jets in the following week which made this one even easier to pick.
8. New Orleans -6.5 vs. Dallas
-The Saints in their dome may be one of the best teams in football. Dallas on the road not so much. The Cowboys were coming off a game where they got outplayed at home by the Minnesota Vikings but escaped with a victory. The Saints were coming of a tough loss in NY vs. the Jets and were not going to come out of this one without a blowout victory to save face.
9. Detroit -.5 @ Chicago
-Detroit was coming off a bye week. Chicago was coming off a short week. Also with Jay Culter rushing back from injury this one looked like a clear Detroit choice. I may have steered clear of this one if McCown had started. But coming off a bye versus a team on short rest was enough for me to take Detroit in this one.
10. Tampa Bay +2 vs. Miami
-The Bucs were coming off a strong showing in Seattle. Not many teams have strong showings in Seattle. They were coming home for a Monday night game with some confidence and some clear evidence they have not thrown in the towel on their coach. Miami had all that fun controversy surrounding them. All this was a formula for the Bucs first win of the season.
I had all this written down on my betting sheet from last week and I just expanded on everything that went through my head before picking these games. I didn't take the team that I thought was better. I took the team that was in the better situation.
In my next post I will put out all my picks for week 11 with explanation. I don't think I will go 10-0 again but I do foresee a winning record for the remainder of the season.
No comments:
Post a Comment