Winning Formula: NFL Week 10 - ATS

I thought I would start this thing up after intensely watching trends and picking games. After 9 weeks of action I was even meaning I was down. Then week 10 hit. I missed the Thursday night game after picking Washington -1 @ Minnesota. I knew something was up with this game. I saw Washington as the more talented team on offense(Despite AP) and I saw the weak defenses as a push. I thought Washington should be -4.5 as they needed a win to stay in the playoff hunt and the Vikings are just awful especially at the QB position.

When this happens I should ALWAYS pick against my gut. The handicappers knew something I didn't and made the bet look too good to turn down. I took the bait and lost.

Here is what I overlooked when betting this game:

Both teams are playing on short rest. The Vikings were coming off a week where they played a solid game against the Cowboys as 9 point dogs. They should have won that game that was played in Dallas.

The Redskins were coming off a great overtime victory at home versus a solid but unspectacular Chargers team. The skins came up with a goal line stand to force overtime. This was a hard fought battle the entire game.

The Redskins also had a big divisional game coming up in the following week vs. the Eagles. 

So you would say both teams had hard fought games. However the Vikings get to head home after that surprising solid effort they put in to play on national TV. The Redskins have to hit the road after their big home win and may be looking forward to their battle with the Eagles in the following week.

In conclusion: Vikings excited for primetime game and confident after solid showing @ Dallas. Redskins excited about win however have to travel for next game immediately after OT win. Skins also have big divisional match up in the upcoming week.
Should have taken the point and the Vikings.

Now you may call me out and say "hindsight is 20/20". I would completely agree with you until the rest of my picks played out over the weekend. I went back and looked at each game in depth. So much of my pick had to do with last weeks results and the upcoming weeks game. Now a lot of games do not have huge tellers like the Redskins Vikings game. I did go with my gut on 3 of my picks. All the others had big tellers that I went with even if my gut didn't like the pick.

Results: I hit all 10 games I picked including taking the Jags straight up versus the Titans.

Over 43.5 (Giants vs. Oakland)

Seattle -5.5 @ Atlanta

Baltimore +1.5 vs. Cinci

Carolina +6 vs. San Fran

Denver -7 @ San Diego

St. Louis +8 vs. Indianapolis

Jacksonville SU vs. Tennessee(13.5 spread)

Pittsburgh -3 vs. Buffalo

New Orleans -6.5 vs. Dallas

Lions Pick @ Chicago

Tampa Bay +2 vs. Dolphins

 I know this is posted AFTER the games and I could easily by lying. I will post each explanation for every pick I made last week in my next writeup. After that I will include my picks for the coming week and start keeping tabs on my record. Thanks for reading. More to come.